Symposium On The Future Prospects of Sudan & South Sudan
Organized by Faculty of Arts
University of Khartoum
17 July 2017
Lual A. Deng, PhD
Ebony Center for Strategic Studies
Juba, South Sudan
The Future of Two Sudans is bound By
four (4) binding constraints (i.e. necessary conditions, though not sufficient), which calls for two viable Sudanese States at peace with each other on the one hand, and within themselves on the other. These are:
A common border of 1,200 km, which Dr. John Garang (RIP) used to call the Tamazuj zone!
Tamazuj zone constitutes: a) 40% of arable land of Greater Sudan (i.e. 2 Sudans); b) about 37% of the population of Greater Sudan (about 43% of that of South Sudan and 36% of Sudan are in this zone); c) 100% of oil produced in the Greater Sudan came from here; and d) about 40% of livestock is found here.
Common heritage (at least for the Nilotic group in South Sudan) dating back as far as the ancient Kingdom of Kush.
Common colonial legacy and institutions.
Economics (or Commerce)!
They Face common proximate determinants of growth:
- 1) Savings
- 2) Investment
- 3) Education
- 4) Productivity
- 5) Infrastructure
There is paradoxically a viable social capital among the local communities of the Tamazuj zone. That is, there are relatively strong networks of civic/communal engagement between local communities despite occasional clashes over the grazing areas. These networks have been formed through centuries of interactions among the local communities within the Tamazuj zone.
Sufficient Conditions for the viability of two States
Visionary leadership that is willing to pursue a win-win outcome for two viable Sudanese States at peace with each other and within themselves
Implementation of the four freedoms
Coordinated foreign policy
Joint integrated units along the Tamazuj zon
- The delineation and demarcation of the 2,200 km long border. This step is necessary for achieving sustained peace between the two countries, for once the border is known they can then agree on a mechanism that would ensure smooth and free movement of people, goods, and services across the border and therefore making it a “soft” border.
Write off the external debt of Sudan and lift economic sanctions as soon as the border is 100% demarcated with full acceptance from Khartoum.
Establish the Tamazuj zone Governors’ Forum
Establish a Tamazuj Development Bank (TDB), which will be a financing mechanism for joint programs/projects as well as individual projects within the ten (10) states. The main office of the TDB can be in Abyei, but with branches in the capitals of the ten states as well as liaison offices in Khartoum and Juba.
Troika (USA, UK, & Norway), IMF and the World Bank to assist the two countries to immediately embark on the path of economic integration.
Restore the Joint Integrated/Monitoring Unit (JIU/JMU) mechanism for monitoring the north-south 2,200 km long border.